Episode 777: The DC Today - Thursday, January 18, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3vIRb6n

A positive morning of trading in markets gave way to losses mid-day, only to gain it all back and then some as we headed towards the close, ending up 200 points. Interestingly, the correlation between rates and stocks today actually moved together with both rising, where the opposite has been the case much of this year. 10’s are moving further into four handle territory up to 4.14% as rates crept back up today with a stronger jobless claim number. We are at about a 54% chance on futures for a March rate cut at this point.

We are still early in earnings season, but it has been notable that while 92% of companies reported thus far have exceeded expectations, 58% of them have actually traded lower on the news. A combination of some exuberance over lower rates this year coming out of markets and just some general consolidation after the year-end run-up seems to be at play. I find this consolidation healthy, and with an advance decline ratio only back to -3:1, I doubt we have seen the last of it. More in the link below.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com