Episode 1431: What to Make of Rising Bond Yields?

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4jNrsk2

David L. Bahnsen previews a fuller recap of portfolio-manager meetings next week and focuses this episode on the recent rise in long-term Treasury yields, especially the 10-year. He argues the 75-basis-point jump is not credibly explained by worsening U.S. deficits or national debt, noting total public-plus-private debt-to-GDP is unchanged versus 20 years ago and interest cost-to-GDP remains below historical averages. He also downplays inflation as the primary driver, citing only a 12-basis-point increase in 10-year breakeven inflation despite tariffs and oil-related supply shocks. Instead, he attributes higher yields to supply-demand dynamics from massive, high-grade AI-related debt issuance across hyperscalers and adjacent infrastructure, plus hedging/short positioning in Treasuries. He warns of narrow market breadth and “Mag Seven” as a safety trade, sees improved fixed-income attractiveness, and highlights potential opportunities in beaten-down REITs, financials, and industrials.

00:00 Welcome and Week Ahead

01:07 Why Long Yields Matter

03:10 Quick OpenAI Detour

03:52 Debt Is Not the Driver

09:12 Inflation Expectations Check

14:15 AI Debt Supply Shock

18:53 Fed Curve and Term Premium

21:30 Investor Impact and Breadth

24:05 Where Opportunity Lies Now

27:26 Final Thoughts and Sign Off

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com